The U.S. commercial real estate market enters 2026 following a volatile but ultimately stabilizing year. Despite persistent macroeconomic uncertainty in 2025, property markets proved more resilient than expected, setting the stage for a measured recovery across most sectors. Newmark Research’s base case for 2026 is a “decaf stagflation” environment—characterized by below-trend economic growth and stubborn inflation—which limits the scope for aggressive interest rate cuts while still supporting gradual improvements in fundamentals.
Capital markets, occupier demand and development pipelines are all at important inflection points heading into 2026. Liquidity dynamics, pricing discovery and the pace of transaction activity are evolving unevenly across sectors, while occupiers reassess space needs with greater emphasis on quality, flexibility and long-term efficiency. At the same time, constrained construction pipelines and lingering supply imbalances are reshaping competitive positioning across property types, widening the divide between high-performing, modern assets and those facing functional or structural obsolescence.
Against this complex backdrop, the U.S. commercial real estate market enters 2026 as a year of transition rather than acceleration. This outlook examines the forces redefining risk and opportunity across property types and markets, and explores where stabilization may give way to renewed momentum, and where challenges are likely to persist.
Topics Covered in this Report
- Capital Markets: Renewed deal activity is being driven by shifting debt dynamics and changing pricing conditions.
- Industrial: Supply and demand levels are poised to move back into balance.
- Office: Office demand will build across markets, returning to historical norms in some and extending its lead among trophy assets.
- Multifamily: Slowing supply and stable vacancy are set to shape rent growth in 2026.
- Retail: The spending power of coming-of-age consumers will power the retail market past economic obstacles in 2026.
- Life Science: This sector’s future will be defined by several key factors amid lingering uncertainty.
- Data Centers: Rising demand, alongside power and infrastructure constraints, is reshaping expansion across the sector.
