The U.S. capital markets posted steady gains in the third quarter, reflecting renewed confidence among investors and lenders. Deal flow strengthened as liquidity returned, supported by robust debt origination, consistent pricing and a wider mix of active participants. While rate uncertainty persists, capital movement continues to rebalance, underscoring the sector’s resilience.
Our 3Q25 report highlights the trends shaping today’s capital environment—from the rebound in debt origination to stabilizing cap rates and improving office market returns. Institutional and private investors are recalibrating strategies as lender participation and transaction volumes build, signaling measured yet sustained recovery heading into 2026.
Key Takeaways:
- Debt origination rose 48% year-over-year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
- Investment sales volume increased 19% year-to-date to reach $350 billion.
- Roughly $573 billion in maturing loans remain at risk of distress.
- Dry powder declined 17% as compared to 2022 levels.
- Office market returns grew 3.4%, marking a third consecutive positive quarter.
- Cap rates stabilized across sectors amid persistently tight spreads.
