Close to 3,000 potential openings
2025 will likely see an increase in the number of retailers affected by legal proceedings in France. In the first nine months of 2025, Newmark had already identified 46 cases, compared with 50 for the whole of 2024, mainly in the fashion sector (39%), ahead of home goods (24%). At the same time, many retailers are expanding their network of sales outlets, with some taking advantage of premises becoming available because of these legal proceedings. The breakdown by sector is also stable from one year to the next.
Confirmed boom in leisure activities
In the leisure sector, the trend is clearly towards growth. This growth is reflected both in the proliferation of new concepts and in the development of dedicated leisure complexes, such as the projects led by operators including Nikito, Monky and 1055. “Around fifteen complexes larger than 5,000 sq m will be built in France in 2025, representing a total volume of some 130,000 sq m, up 51% on 2024 and 103% on 2023,” predicts Vianney d'Ersu. These projects will represent more than a quarter of the total production of square meters of retail complexes in France, while the development of traditional retail formats continues to decrease. However, the actual number of openings is likely to be lower given the probable delay of certain projects. Furthermore, the average size of projects is tending to decrease, reaching just under 9,000 sq m compared to 10,500 sq m between 2022 and 2024.
Around one hundred new players in 2025
In this changing landscape, another factor is accelerating the transformation of retail: the continuous emergence of new players, some of which are shaking up established models. “After a record year in 2024, 2025 should see the arrival of around 100 new foreign brands, nearly 80 of which have already opened their first store in France,” explains Antoine Salmon, co-head of the Retail department at Newmark France. As was the case last year, the restaurant and clothing sectors account for the largest share of these new players. Most of the new fashion players are high-end, cutting-edge concepts, such as Reformation (United States) and Sunspel (United Kingdom) in the Marais, and Toteme (Sweden) and Sease (Italy) on Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré.
The breakthrough of Asian brands is another notable phenomenon, with a clear acceleration since 2023. Since then, they have accounted for 17% of new foreign brands arriving in France, more than North American brands. "Driven by players such as Miniso, Pop Mart, Gong Cha and Gentle Monster, they are investing in a variety of sectors, from catering to fashion, mobility and beauty, with sometimes sophisticated concepts. This boom is a sign of a real cultural
shift: Asia is no longer just exporting products but also a way of life, and everything indicates that this influence, which is particularly visible in Paris, will intensify over the coming years," predicts Antoine Salmon.
Vacancy rates continue to fall on prime Paris retail streets
The capital remains the preferred target for new foreign brands. In 2025, Paris will still attract a significant share, although this will be down year-on-year (63% in 2025 after 75% in 2024). In the luxury sector, 27 luxury boutiques are expected to open in 2025, more than half of which will be new creations. In 2026, the trend could even accelerate, as the luxury sector is part of a long-term dynamic that is relatively unaffected by immediate economic uncertainties.
This dynamism in the luxury sector, combined with that of other market categories in sectors such as restaurants, accessories, and beauty, is contributing to a decrease in retail vacancy rates on the capital's prime retail streets. “Of the 24 streets monitored by Newmark, the vacancy rate averages 4.1% compared to 5.1% in the same period in 2024. In this context, rental values are stabilizing or experiencing slight upward pressure in the most sought-after streets, particularly in the Marais,” continues Antoine Salmon.
Outside the prime sector, the picture for 2025 is more mixed. However, certain secondary locations remain dynamic, and several international brands are expanding their networks in the capital, such as LIDL on Place de la République, Action near Bastille, and Maxi Zoo on Boulevard Voltaire.
Hyper-selectivity is still the key word in the investment market
Investors have taken note of this restructuring of the French market. The polarization of the rental market in favor of the best locations in Paris is even more pronounced in the investment market. Following a few major transactions at the beginning of the year, including the joint venture formed by Kering and Ardian for a portfolio of three prestigious real estate complexes, new significant sales have been finalized in recent months (223 rue Saint-Honoré, sold by Hines to Pontegadea). The shopping center market remains sluggish, accounting for only 20% of investment volumes and a small number of transactions, including the sale by URW to CDC of 15% of the Forum des Halles and the purchase by Mercialys of Saint Genis 2 in the Rhône region. Finally, retail parks, although highly prized by investors, account for only 7% of the amounts invested in retail (compared with 27% for 2024 as a whole) due to limited supply.
The situation is unlikely to change significantly in 2026. "After a result in 2025 similar to that of 2024, the retail market will continue to be supported by value-add strategies, fueled by significant fundraising that will primarily target assets with indisputable qualities. Core players will generally remain on the sidelines, except in the retail park sector. Furthermore, buyers' increased demands will continue to clash with the still high price expectations of some sellers, even as a significant volume of assets coming onto the market fuels supply," concludes Malo Lacroix.
